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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYG
29.2%
CAR
70.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
CAR 25
Projected margin: CAR by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Knee
Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle

CAR

Greg Olsen TE Out Foot
Jared Norris LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 31
–
CAR 33

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:30 FG NYG (7:30) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 04:49 TD CAR (4:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 10-C.Samuel for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – CAR 6
  • Q2 14:21 TD CAR (14:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NYG 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 3, RECOVERED by CAR-42-C.Jones at NYG 0. TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – CAR 13
  • Q2 08:50 FG CAR (8:50) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYG 3 – CAR 17
  • Q2 06:48 TD NYG (6:48) 13-O.Beckham pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – CAR 17
  • Q2 02:41 FG CAR (2:41) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYG 10 – CAR 20
  • Q2 00:25 FG NYG (:25) 2-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 13 – CAR 20
  • Q3 07:39 FG NYG (7:39) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 16 – CAR 20
  • Q4 11:28 TD CAR (11:28) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – CAR 26
  • Q4 08:16 TD NYG (8:16) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-59-L.Kuechly, Illegal Contact, declined. NYG 22 – CAR 27
  • Q4 02:21 FG CAR (2:21) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYG 24 – CAR 30
  • Q4 01:15 TD NYG (1:15) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 30 – CAR 30
  • Q4 00:06 FG CAR (:06) 9-G.Gano 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NYG 31 – CAR 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to CAR 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 6 for -3 yards (80-J.Davis).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to NYG 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham to CAR 39 for 15 yards (44-J.Jansen).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (7:30) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 57%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 23%

    (14:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NYG 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 3, RECOVERED by CAR-42-C.Jones at NYG 0. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to CAR 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

    (8:50) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%

    (2:41) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 67%

    (:25) 2-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to NYG 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 25 for 11 yards (55-D.Mayo). PENALTY on NYG-58-T.Davis, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 14.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (8:49) 10-E.Manning up the middle to CAR 14 for 2 yards (93-K.Love).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (7:39) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%

    (3:27) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 13-J.Wright to NYG 17 for 27 yards (35-C.Riley).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (2:21) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.