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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 35

New York Giants 10 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(:25) 2-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model