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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 20 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to NYG 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 25 for 11 yards (55-D.Mayo). PENALTY on NYG-58-T.Davis, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NYG 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model