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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 16
New York Giants 13 – Carolina Panthers 20
What Actually Happened
(8:49) 10-E.Manning up the middle to CAR 14 for 2 yards (93-K.Love).
The Three Options
GO
+3.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.94 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP
KICK
+1.84 EP
- 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
