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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 18

New York Giants 13 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model