4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 27 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 13-J.Wright to NYG 17 for 27 yards (35-C.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.49 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model