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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 27 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.81 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model