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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 23

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model