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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 35

Washington Commanders 3 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model