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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Monday 2018-10-08 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

WAS
36.6%
NO
63.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.210 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS on 7 more days rest than NO
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

WAS

Troy Apke S Out Hamstring
Shawn Lauvao G Out Calf
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Heel
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

NO

Ted Ginn WR Out Knee
Cameron Tom C Questionable Knee
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Illness
Manti Te'o LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 19
–
NO 43

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:45 TD NO (10:45) 22-M.Ingram left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 02:42 FG WAS (2:42) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 10:41 TD NO (10:41) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 89-J.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0 WAS 3 – NO 12
  • Q2 08:41 FG WAS (8:41) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – NO 13
  • Q2 03:47 TD NO (3:47) 74-J.Bushrod reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NO 19
  • Q2 02:46 TD NO (2:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 10-T.Smith for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 38 PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. With this TD pass completion, NO #9 D.Brees becomes the NFL's all-time leader in passing yardage. WAS 6 – NO 26
  • Q2 00:29 TD WAS (:29) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – NO 26
  • Q3 12:29 TD NO (12:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 10-T.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 28, YAC 7 WAS 13 – NO 32
  • Q3 06:48 TD NO (6:48) T.Hill at quarterback. D.Brees at wide receiver. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – NO 39
  • Q4 14:15 FG NO (14:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. WAS 13 – NO 43
  • Q4 10:29 TD WAS (10:29) 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 46-K.Bibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – NO 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:03) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to NO 36, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 41-A.Kamara to NO 36 for no gain (48-K.Ladler; 52-R.Anderson).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 92%

    (2:42) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 68%

    (8:41) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:53) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to NO 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara. Penalty on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

    (1:55) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to NO 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 77%

    (7:59) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 13-M.Harris INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Hardee at NO 19. 34-J.Hardee to WAS 4 for 77 yards (86-J.Reed).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:27) 11-A.Smith left end pushed ob at WAS 37 for 3 yards (53-A.Klein).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (2:32) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at NO 29 for -7 yards (92-M.Davenport). FUMBLES (92-M.Davenport), RECOVERED by NO-53-A.Klein at NO 35. 53-A.Klein to WAS 48 for 17 yards (76-M.Moses).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (14:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:07) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 80-J.Crowder to NO 43 for 24 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 20, YAC 4