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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 75

Washington Commanders 6 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to NO 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara. Penalty on NO-93-D.Onyemata, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model