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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 40

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 11-A.Smith left end pushed ob at WAS 37 for 3 yards (53-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model