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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 40 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model