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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 19

Washington Commanders 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model