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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to BAL 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.31 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model