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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 16:25 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

BAL
51.3%
TEN
48.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.176 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): -0.035 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 22
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BAL

Anthony Averett CB Out Hamstring
De'Lance Turner RB Out Hamstring
Brandon Carr CB Questionable Knee
Anthony Levine LB Questionable Hamstring
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Foot
Tim Williams LB Questionable Hamstring
Tavon Young CB Questionable Hip

TEN

Will Compton LB Out Hamstring
Kenny Vaccaro S Out Elbow
Bennie Logan DT Questionable Elbow
Kamalei Correa LB Questionable Foot
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Knee
Wesley Woodyard LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 21
–
TEN 0

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:32 TD BAL (1:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 12:02 TD BAL (12:02) 34-A.Collins left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – TEN 0
  • Q3 07:46 TD BAL (7:46) 34-A.Collins right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – TEN 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 19 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 28%

    (10:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to BAL 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BAL 42, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to BAL 48 for 6 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 35%

    (7:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to BAL 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (4:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to BAL 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 4 yards (31-K.Byard). PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BAL 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to BAL 44 for 26 yards (32-D.Fluellen).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 28 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 35%

    (5:01) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to TEN 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-C.Jones.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 24%

    (:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-C.Batson to TEN 11 for no gain (50-A.McClellan).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 27-C.Jones to TEN 36 for 14 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to TEN 25 for 6 yards (99-J.Casey).