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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model