Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

(5:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 28 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model