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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.07 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model