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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model