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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to TEN 25 for 6 yards (99-J.Casey).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP