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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 31

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model