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Carolina Panthers

3-2 HC Ron Rivera
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Washington Commanders

3-2 HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CAR
47.8%
WAS
52.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 22 15–29
–
WAS 23 16–30
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

Damiere Byrd WR Out Ankle
Jared Norris LB Out Toe
Andre Smith LB Out Hamstring
Marquis Haynes DE Out Not Injury Related
Greg Olsen TE Questionable Foot

WAS

Troy Apke S Out Hamstring
Shawn Lauvao G Doubtful Calf
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Ankle
Zach Vigil LB Questionable Thigh
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Heel
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Ankle
Paul Richardson WR Questionable Shoulder
Chris Thompson RB Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 17
–
WAS 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:26 TD WAS (10:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 03:07 TD WAS (3:07) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 05:35 FG WAS (5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 0 – WAS 17
  • Q2 03:11 TD CAR (3:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 17-D.Funchess for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – WAS 17
  • Q3 05:12 FG CAR (5:12) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 9 – WAS 17
  • Q4 12:46 FG WAS (12:46) 3-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 9 – WAS 20
  • Q4 08:36 TD CAR (8:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 11-T.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 15 – WAS 20
  • Q4 03:18 FG WAS (3:18) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CAR 17 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (11:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 1 yard (51-S.Hamilton, 56-Z.Vigil). FUMBLES (51-S.Hamilton), RECOVERED by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle at CAR 22.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to WAS 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:14) 11-A.Smith left guard to WAS 47 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis). QB sneak

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:10) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to CAR 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 12-D.Moore. PENALTY on CAR-23-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%

    (1:33) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-83-B.Quick.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to CAR 43, Center-44-J.Jansen. 37-G.Stroman to CAR 33 for 10 yards (10-C.Samuel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 59%

    (:26) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to CAR 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-S.Perine. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CAR 6.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (10:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 86-J.Reed (58-T.Davis). WAS-75-B.Scherff was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (5:12) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 61%

    (12:46) 3-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (3:18) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →