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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 44

Washington Commanders 17 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-83-B.Quick.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model