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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 39

Washington Commanders 17 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(:26) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to CAR 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-32-S.Perine. PENALTY on CAR-26-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CAR 6.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.65 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP