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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 1 yard (51-S.Hamilton, 56-Z.Vigil). FUMBLES (51-S.Hamilton), RECOVERED by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle at CAR 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model