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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 38

Washington Commanders 17 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 3-D.Hopkins 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model