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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 11

Washington Commanders 20 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model