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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 17 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP