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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 32

Miami Dolphins 7 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(7:55) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model