Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Brock Osweiler (MIA): -0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIA starting Brock Osweiler in place of Ryan Tannehill)
- CHI defense: -0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- CHI on 7 more days rest than MIA
- CHI offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
CHI
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:42 TD MIA (8:42) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 83-N.O'Leary for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIA 6
- Q3 13:27 TD CHI (13:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 80-T.Burton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIA 7
- Q3 11:33 TD CHI (11:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson II for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – MIA 7
- Q3 07:55 FG MIA (7:55) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. CHI 14 – MIA 10
- Q3 06:55 TD CHI (6:55) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – MIA 10
- Q3 00:30 FG MIA (:30) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. CHI 21 – MIA 13
- Q4 09:19 TD MIA (9:19) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 15-A.Wilson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – MIA 19
- Q4 03:23 TD CHI (3:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 17-A.Miller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – MIA 21
- Q4 03:17 TD MIA (3:17) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – MIA 27
- Q5 00:03 FG MIA (:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. CHI 28 – MIA 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%
(13:19) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(12:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to MIA 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 45%
(2:03) 29-T.Cohen left end to MIA 42 for no gain (20-R.Jones).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 53%
(14:57) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 20 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(8:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to MIA 17, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:30) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 47 yards to CHI 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 5 yards (34-S.Perry).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%
(7:55) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%
(:30) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 41 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%
(:41) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 34 yards to CHI 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.