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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 28 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 34 yards to CHI 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP