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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 42
Chicago Bears 0 – Miami Dolphins 7
What Actually Happened
(2:03) 29-T.Cohen left end to MIA 42 for no gain (20-R.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+1.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP
KICK
-0.94 EP
- 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
