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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 37
Dallas Cowboys 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(2:46) 21-E.Elliott right guard to JAX 35 for 2 yards (48-L.Jacobs).
The Three Options
GO
+1.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.59 EP
KICK
+0.39 EP
- 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 36% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
