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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-3 HC Doug Marrone
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

3-3 HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 16:25 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

JAX
55.8%
DAL
44.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21 14–28
–
DAL 20 13–27
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

JAX

Leonard Fournette RB Out Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Out Toe
Tre Herndon CB Out Hamstring
Carson Tinker LS Out Knee
Josh Wells T Out Groin
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Knee

DAL

Sean Lee LB Out Hamstring
Joe Thomas LB Out Foot
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Ankle
Brice Butler WR Questionable Groin
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Knee
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Shoulder
Deonte Thompson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 7
–
DAL 40

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 FG DAL (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 03:52 TD DAL (3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DAL 9
  • Q2 09:34 TD DAL (9:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DAL 16
  • Q2 00:47 TD DAL (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Beasley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – DAL 23
  • Q3 07:39 TD JAX (7:39) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DAL 24
  • Q3 03:09 FG DAL (3:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 7 – DAL 27
  • Q3 01:22 FG DAL (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 7 – DAL 30
  • Q4 15:00 TD DAL (15:00) 21-E.Elliott left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – DAL 36
  • Q4 07:12 FG DAL (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. JAX 7 – DAL 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:06) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for 3 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%

    (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:21) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to DAL 42, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-45-M.Overton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 42.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 56%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 24 yards to DAL 16, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:02) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to DAL 22, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 64%

    (2:46) 21-E.Elliott right guard to JAX 35 for 2 yards (48-L.Jacobs).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to JAX 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-49-J.Olawale.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:55) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to DAL 24, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 30 for 6 yards (26-J.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to JAX 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for no gain. Lateral to 17-D.Chark to JAX 18 for -8 yards (49-J.Olawale).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (3:09) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (1:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%

    (11:52) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Moncrief (31-B.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 49%

    (9:24) 21-E.Elliott right guard to JAX 41 for 2 yards (99-M.Dareus).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 64%

    (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:36) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to JAX 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 36 for 6 yards (55-L.Vander Esch; 35-K.Frazier).

    See the full breakdown →