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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to DAL 24, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 30 for 6 yards (26-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model