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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model