4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Dallas Cowboys 37

What Actually Happened

(11:52) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Moncrief (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model