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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 43
Dallas Cowboys 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7
What Actually Happened
(9:24) 21-E.Elliott right guard to JAX 41 for 2 yards (99-M.Dareus).
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.83 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
KICK
-0.51 EP
- 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
- 51% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT
-0.63 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
