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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 37

Dallas Cowboys 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.64 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model