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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Dallas Cowboys 40

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model