Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 40 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to JAX 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 36 for 6 yards (55-L.Vander Esch; 35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -1.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model