Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to DAL 42, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-45-M.Overton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model