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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP