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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 20:20 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 59.5

Win Probability

KC
49.5%
NE
50.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Tom Brady (NE) +0.146 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.394 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

KC 26
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 54

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

KC

Eric Murray S Out Ankle
De'Anthony Thomas WR Out Tibia
Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel
Justin Houston LB Doubtful Hamstring
Tanoh Kpassagnon LB Questionable Ankle

NE

Malcom Brown DT Questionable Knee
Josh Gordon WR Questionable Hamstring
Geneo Grissom DE Questionable Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Thigh
Sony Michel RB Questionable Knee
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Elbow
John Simon DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 40
–
NE 43

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:09 FG KC (9:09) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 05:22 FG NE (5:22) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. KC 3 – NE 3
  • Q1 05:01 TD NE (5:01) 26-S.Michel up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – NE 9
  • Q1 03:29 FG KC (3:29) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – NE 10
  • Q2 12:58 TD NE (12:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – NE 16
  • Q2 06:24 FG KC (6:24) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 9 – NE 17
  • Q2 02:00 TD NE (2:00) 26-S.Michel right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – NE 23
  • Q3 13:39 TD KC (13:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 27-K.Hunt for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 15 – NE 24
  • Q3 07:20 FG NE (7:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. KC 16 – NE 27
  • Q3 03:40 FG KC (3:40) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 19 – NE 27
  • Q3 01:03 TD KC (1:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 25 – NE 27
  • Q4 10:25 FG NE (10:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 350th career FG, 19th all-time. KC 26 – NE 30
  • Q4 08:44 TD KC (8:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 32 – NE 30
  • Q4 05:32 TD NE (5:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-O.Scandrick, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 33 – NE 36
  • Q4 03:19 FG NE (3:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 400th career FGA, 30th all-time. KC 33 – NE 40
  • Q4 03:15 TD KC (3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 39 – NE 40
  • Q4 00:03 FG NE (:03) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. KC 40 – NE 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 56%

    (12:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Gordon.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

    (9:09) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%

    (5:22) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 87%

    (3:29) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (6:24) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (7:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right tackle to KC 49 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 96%

    (3:40) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (10:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 350th career FG, 19th all-time.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NE 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-19-M.Kemp. NE 11-Edelman signaled for fair catch. Flag picked up - NE 35-Crossen pushed KC-35-Ward into NE 11-Edelman.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (3:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 400th career FGA, 30th all-time.