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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP