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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes right tackle to KC 49 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model