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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.39 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP