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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 21

New England Patriots 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 350th career FG, 19th all-time.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model