4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 32

New England Patriots 37 – Kansas City Chiefs 33

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 400th career FGA, 30th all-time.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model